Markets Back in Green, ETF Inflows Surge, From Big Stacks to Bold Tracks

• BTC spot ETFs recorded $2.3B in inflows, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $10.5M
• MSTR added 6,556 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 538,200 BTC
• Circle launched the Circle Payments Network to reshape global money movement
  

Crypto spring-loaded, strong BTC ETF Inflows, MSTR stacks BTC as shorts sweat

Crypto markets surged this week, bringing the total market capitalization of the crypto universe just shy of the $3 trillion mark, with bitcoin dominance climbing above 63%. Among major cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rallied by 12% week on week, while ether and Solana outperformed, rising by 13.1% and 19.7% respectively. The catalyst for this sharp uptick appeared following comments from US President Donald Trump, who signaled a softer stance on trade negotiations, mentioning import tariffs on Chinese goods would "come down substantially." Some of these gains were later trimmed after officials clarified that the White House is not considering a unilateral tariff cut, and any changes would depend on future negotiations yet to take place. The excitement extended beyond mere price movements, clearly reflected in ETF flows. Over the past 5 trading days, BTC spot ETFs recorded strong cumulative net inflows of $2.3 billion, whereas ETH spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of $10.5 million. Historically, a major driver of these inflows has been basis trade activity. With the BTC CME annualized basis climbing from sub 5% at the start of the month to nearly 9% this week, basis trades likely played a key role once again, in addition to investors adding bitcoin to their macro portfolios. Are we witnessing the start of a broader market reawakening, or is this just a short-term jolt from shifting macro winds?

Bitcoin has become the 5th largest asset by market capitalization, reaching $1.86 trillion and surpassing Google (GOOG) as it broke through $94,000 earlier this week. There is growing talk of bitcoin decoupling from its correlation with the Nasdaq, increasingly being viewed as a safe haven asset—akin to gold—in times of economic turmoil. However, concerns about a looming recession may temper its upside. While the positive price action and uptick in ETF inflows hint at a possible resurgence in institutional demand for bitcoin, retail investor participation has yet to follow. According to data from CryptoQuant, buy volumes between $0 and $10,000 remained below 0%, suggesting smaller, low-volume buyers are still on the sidelines. In previous cycles, these investors have typically followed BTC price breakouts but have played a key role in reinforcing momentum once their activity turns positive. Zooming in to last week, which included both Good Friday and Easter Monday, the long holiday weekend contributed to thinner liquidity. While crypto markets trade 24/7, reduced liquidity during holidays can amplify price movements in response to catalysts. Meanwhile, long-term holders have been quietly accumulating. According to a CoinDesk post, for every 1 BTC sold by short-term holders, long-term holders (those holding for at least 155 days) have scooped up 1.38 BTC—a strong show of conviction as prices rebound. Since the January lows, long-term holders have added over 635,000 BTC, bringing their total stash to nearly 13.76 million BTC. These investors tend to buy when markets are weak and hold through volatility, in contrast to short-term holders, who have offloaded nearly 461,000 BTC, often locking in gains or cutting losses. Interestingly, many who bought during the surge from $65,000 to $95,000 late last year have now crossed into long-term territory, suggesting deeper conviction behind that move. Despite bitcoin still trading below its $109,000 all-time high, long-term holders haven’t flinched, with 2.6 million BTC still sitting at a loss—a sharp drop from over 5 million earlier this month, but still highlighting pockets of unrealized pain from the rally past $100,000.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) made headlines once again, adding 6,556 bitcoin (BTC) to its balance sheet at a cost of $555.8 million, according to a regulatory filing published on Monday. The purchase was funded through proceeds from the company's 2 at-the-market (ATM) stock offering programs. Between April 14 to 20, the firm sold 1.76 million shares of its Class A common stock and over 91,000 shares of a preferred stock series, STRK, raising $547.7 million and $7.8 million respectively. This latest acquisition boosts MicroStrategy’s total holdings to 538,200 BTC, purchased at an average price of $67,766 per coin, bringing its cumulative bitcoin investment to $36.47 billion. Meanwhile, traders shorting MSTR may be feeling the pressure. More than $180 million worth of trades in MSTR stock failed to settle last month, according to SEC and Fintel data. These Failures to Deliver (FTDs), often associated with short-selling pressures, spiked as MSTR’s share price climbed 13% in March. On March 26 alone, over 186,000 shares failed to settle, worth nearly $64 million. In total, 609,000 shares failed to deliver during the month. While FTDs can sometimes stem from administrative lags, they may also indicate that short sellers are struggling to locate shares to cover their positions. With short interest still running high—about 29 million shares sold short, or more than 12% of the float—the persistent size and frequency of FTDs in MSTR could potentially result in a significant price movement, either a breakout or a breakdown, driven by short covering or renewed bearish pressure.

Cantor bets on bitcoin, Circle lays the rails, and OKX eyes the American dream

If MicroStrategy set the tone with its bold accumulation, Cantor Fitzgerald followed up with a move that's just as ambitious, if not more calculated, Cantor Fitzgerald is stepping in with a heavyweight play of its own. Teaming up with Tether and SoftBank, they’re backing a new venture called Twenty One Capital, aimed squarely at stacking bitcoin. The plan? Merge Cantor’s blank-check vehicle into this new outfit and hit the ground running with a serious BTC war chest. Tether is bringing $1.5 billion to the table, Bitfinex adds $600 million, and SoftBank chips in $900 million. The venture also plans to raise another $550 million through bonds and private equity, pushing for a launch holding over 42,000 BTC—making it the 3rd largest bitcoin treasury right out of the gate, behind only MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings. What's more, they’re not just hoarding BTC; they’re modeling it like MSTR’s proxy play, converting BTC into equity at a valuation around $85,000 per coin. As Bitcoin hovers near $93,000 and regulatory winds shift in favor of crypto under Trump, this deal speaks volumes. Twenty One Capital isn’t stopping there. It will track performance in BTC, introducing new metrics like Bitcoin Per Share (BPS) and Bitcoin Return Rate (BRR), giving investors a fresh lens on crypto-equity value. For now, Cantor Equity Partners will trade under its CEP ticker until the deal wraps, with plans for Twenty One to hit Nasdaq as "XXI".

Shifting from accumulation to application, Circle’s latest move aims to streamline the global payments game. Circle Internet Group, the stablecoin issuer, announced the launch of the Circle Payments Network (CPN), designed to connect financial institutions—including banks, neo-banks, payment providers, virtual asset service providers, and digital wallets—for real-time cross-border settlements using regulated stablecoins. This marks a significant step in Circle’s evolution, expanding beyond stablecoin issuance to build a globally connected payments infrastructure. According to the press release, despite improvements, cross-border payments still face delays and high costs, often taking more than a business day to settle and averaging over 6% in fees, based on World Bank data. These inefficiencies, particularly burdensome for emerging markets, stem from layers of intermediaries, compliance checks, and fragmented operating hours across jurisdictions. CPN aims to streamline this landscape, enabling global money movement with internet-native speed, transparency, and programmability. Participation requires strict eligibility compliance, including licensing, AML/CFT standards, and robust cybersecurity protocols. Leveraging stablecoins like USDC and EURC, CPN promises seamless integration with domestic real-time payment systems while upholding regulatory rigor. Beyond payments, CPN supports diverse cross-border use cases—from supplier payments and remittances to treasury operations and on-chain financial workflows. Built on smart contracts and modular APIs, the network empowers developers to create custom financial applications directly on its infrastructure.

The push to establish a stronger foothold in the US market continues, with OKX stepping up its game. The exchange announced it's fast-tracking its US expansion, rolling out both a centralized trading platform and a Web3 wallet, along with a notable leadership change. US customers can now access OKX's trading services, with existing users migrating smoothly and new ones coming on board in phases as the company gears up for a full nationwide launch later this year. As part of the rollout, OKX is introducing a self-custody wallet for US users, offering a secure, user-friendly way to manage crypto. Supporting over 130 blockchains, the wallet enables token swaps, cross-chain transfers, NFT exploration, and access to top Web3 apps—all from a streamlined app or browser extension. To anchor its US presence, OKX has appointed Roshan Robert as US CEO and set up new regional headquarters in San Jose, California. Legacy players are stepping in too, with Charles Schwab preparing to enter the bitcoin space. CEO Rick Wurster is reportedly eyeing an April 2026 launch to offer spot bitcoin trading services to Schwab clients, citing a 400% spike in traffic to Schwab's crypto site as a clear sign of growing investor interest, according to RIABiz.

The lines between TradFi and crypto are blurring—not through hype, but through structure. The pieces are moving fast, from balance sheets to infrastructure, from crypto-natives to legacy giants. With bold plays and solid foundations taking shape, what comes next will test not just price levels, but conviction at scale.

Macro pulse 

Among the TradFi assets, oil futures dipped 0.3% on the week, while US equities rallied 1.9%, buoyed by softer rhetoric from President Trump regarding Fed Chair Powell and positive sentiment around US-China trade. The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is weighing a reduction in China tariffs to de-escalate tensions, with discussions pointing to potential rates between 50-65%. However, some of the gains were later pared back after officials clarified that no unilateral tariff cuts are planned, and any revisions would hinge on future negotiations. Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index rose 0.5%, 10-year Treasury yields added 10 bps, and the Gold & Silver Index declined 4.8% week on week.

^{*Note: Weekly (7 calendar day) performance figures are as of 8am SGT on April 24, 2025} 

^{DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Talos Global, Inc. or its affiliates (collectively, "Talos") and summarizes information and articles with respect to cryptocurrencies or related topics. This material is for informational purposes only and is only intended for sophisticated institutional investors, and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Talos. No representation or warranty is made, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information or to the future performance of any digital asset, financial instrument or other market or economic measure. The information is believed to be current as of the date indicated and may not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently became available or a change in circumstances after the date of publication. Talos and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Investing in cryptocurrency comes with risk. Certain statements in this document provide predictions and there is no guarantee that such predictions are currently accurate or will ultimately be realized. Prior results that are presented here are not guaranteed and prior results do not guarantee future performance. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Talos may have financial interests in, or relationships with, some of the assets, entities and/or publications discussed or otherwise referenced in the materials. Certain links that may be provided in the materials are provided for convenience and do not imply Talos's endorsement, or approval of any third-party websites or their content. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Talos.}